Tuesday, July 9, 2013

The New Egyptian Revolution: And Now for the Rest of the Story

A little historical review is warranted when discussing the current situation in Egypt as nothing there makes sense if not seen in an historical perspective. In 1952 King Farouk I, Britain's playboy Egyptian satrap, was overthrow by the Free Officers' Movement. Col. Gamal Abdal Nasser rose to prominence and by 1954 was the supreme leader. Nasser and his acolytes represented the first wave of the Arab Revolution. It was nationalistic and secular in nature and led to the emergence of like minded movements such as the PLA and governments as in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen. One of Nasser's first major projects was the Aswan High Dam which would provide electricity for Egypt's industrialization and control the flooding of the lower Nile Valley to increase agricultural yields. The US was planning to help build and finance this mega-project. But Nasser, pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy, had good relations with the Socialist Bloc and the USSR. In 1956 he recognized the People's Republic of China. This infuriated the US which was still trying to isolate, undermine and overthrow the PRC so we retaliated by reneging on financing the Aswan Dam. Nasser responded by nationalizing the British controlled Suez Canal which precipitated a joint British, French, Israeli invasion of the Sinai and the bombing of Cairo. The US and USSR in a rare bout of cooperation got the tripartite force to withdraw. 

After the dust settled, with continued US refusal to support the Aswan Dam Project, the USSR stepped in to fill the void and help finish the project. Nasser subsequently leaned towards the Soviet bloc and began a process of nationalizations of banking and industry which led to a form of "socialism with Egyptian characteristics." He initiated many reforms, including universal health care, expanding women's rights, family planning programs and housing provisions. He stopped short of total government control of the economy: two-thirds remained in private hands. Under Nasser's rule agricultural production increased and investment in industrialization rose. Nasser also initiated the Helwan steelworks, providing the country with product and the employment of tens of thousands of people. Because of this legacy, his Pan-Arabist anti-imperialist efforts and modernization policies, Nasser is still considered a hero and a symbol of dignity and freedom by many Egyptians and Arabs. He also outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood which had attempted his assassination. 
 
After the 1967 war with Israel and the lose of the Sinai, Nasser attempted to resign but massive demonstrations convinced him to stay in power. He died in 1970 at the young age of 52. Following his death first Sadat and then Mubarak reversed course, and allied with the US in exchange for massive military aid. In 1971 Sadat announced his Corrective Revolution, purging the government, political and security establishments of the most ardent Nasserites, betraying the first Egyptian Revolution. He then began to privatize the economy with his political cronies picking up the spoils. A pro-Western economic policy pushed by the US, the IMF and World Bank began to cut subsidies and social welfare programs and delivered the economy to corporate interests. The 1% siphoned off the wealth of the nation, impoverishing the people. Mubarak who succeeded Sadat after his assassination in 1981 followed suit. He lived off the prestige of the Nasserite army for decades and became an autocratic dictator. The Muslim Brotherhood, while still outlawed, got a new lease on life because of the despotic rule of Mubarak and his neoliberal policies. After years of false promises and deepening economic crisis the Egyptian people want an end to neoliberalism and a return to the “people first” policies of Nasser who is still hailed as a hero, as is attested to by his portrait held aloft by demonstrators in Tahrir Square.

The first Egyptian Revolution was a secular nationalist one. It ushered in an era in which workers, women and other elements of society gained unprecedented influence. Access to adequate housing, education, health services, and nourishment was made accessible for the first time to millions; agrarian reform, major modernization projects such as Helwan and the Aswan High Dam were built. Egypt also experienced a cultural boom, particularly in theater, film, literature, and music. The Egyptian Army was the guarantor of this Revolution. The Army was the mainstay of the Nasserite Revolution and its leaders came from within it ranks. As a consequence the Egyptian people still hold the Army in high esteem and hope that it will return to its revolutionary roots and support the masses of people in Tahrir Square and throughout Egypt who want to see a true renewal of the Egyptian nation.

But Nasser's successor's sold their souls to the West. The army became an independent economic kingdom and the backbone of Mubarak's autocratic, neoliberal dictatorship. This inevitably led to corruption and the impoverishment of the Egyptian people. The betrayal of Nasserism by Sadat and Mubarak discredited the Egyptian state and gave the Muslim Brotherhood a new lease on life. Now Morsi has shown the Egyptian people what Nasser knew all along. The Muslim Brotherhood is the enemy of the people. Let us hope that Egypt returns to the road paved by Nasser.

Seen in a modern perspective what Nasser presided over was "socialism with Egyptian characteristics" very similar in many respects to the leftist anti-imperialist policies presided over by the current Bolivarian Revolutions in Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. Unfortunately Nasser died before his system had become normalized and codified. His successor's dismantled many of Nasser's reforms and sold out to the West for a pile of Washington's money, swallowing the neoliberal bait hook, line and sinker. The neoliberal economic policy impoverished the Egyptian people while it allowed Mubarak and his cronies to feather their own nests. 
 
The 2011 Revolution was a revolt of the Egyptian masses against the neoliberal policies of increased privatizations, the ending of food and fuel subsidies and the dismantlement of the social safety net initiated first by Sadat and then furthered and deepened by Mubarak. Beginning in 2007, with a wave of strikes, resistance to these ‘economic reforms’ which were devastating both the rural and urban population became so strong that Mubarak began putting the brakes on them in an attempt to quell the emerging unrest. The 2011 Revolution spurred on by the global economic crisis, increased austerity and resultant repression was the continuation and culmination of Egyptian resistance against Mubarak's oppressive neoliberal regime. The Revolution was thus not only a call for democratic reforms, the “rule of law” and the end of corruption but also for a turn away from the neoliberalism of the past 40 years and a return to the populist, nationalist and socialist policies of Gamal Abdal Nasser. Bourgeois democracy however, was, and still is, seen by many as the solution to the problems that the Egyptian nation faces. But electoral politics must be seen as a means to an end not an end in itself. The end is social and economic justice. Nasser had begun to meet the needs of the people with the 1964 Constitution that Sadat and Mubarak reversed. Nasser's 1964 Constitution had been promulgated to secure those ends. 

Because Mubarak ruled for so long (30 years) and had created an autocratic police state based on crony capitalism, nepotism and corruption, subservient to the US and its neoliberal minions, the Egyptian people in their masses accepted Obama's propaganda that “fair and free” elections (i.e. bourgeois democracy), the rule of law and an end to corruption would allow the Egyptian nation to solve its problems. But as any revolutionary should know “fair and free” elections are never fair and free when the state apparatus of the ruling class is intact. And furthermore, social and economic justice, is never obtainable under the “rule of law” when the rules are set by the bourgeoisie. In the case of Egypt and other semi-colonial countries, those rules are set by the likes of the IMF and the World Bank. Therefore, “free and fair” elections and “the rule of law” are fictions, mere illusions foisted on the Egyptian masses by their oppressors to ensure continued class rule by the 1%.

By January 2011 the Egyptian people in massive demonstrations forced Mubarak’s removal. The military council that replaced him backtracked on neoliberal diktat even more, reversing some of the liberalization measures that had been implemented previously, much to the fury of the EU. This is due to the fact that the Egyptian people are striving to return to their secular, socialist Nasserite roots. Nasser's portrait is very prominent in Tahrir square. The corporate media, however, wants us to think that the only alternatives for Egypt are the discredited Muslim Brotherhood which Nasser outlawed, the corrupt Mubarak opportunists who betrayed Nasser's program or a liberal democracy beholden to the US, the IMF and the World Bank. The only real viable option for the welfare of the Egyptian people, however, is a return to the developmental policy of Nasser, which is never mentioned as an option by the Western media.

Because of the betrayal of the Nasserite Revolution and the resulting loss of credibility earned by his successors, the National Democratic Party which had ruled Egypt for decades as the only mass political organization, was banned following Mubarak's ouster. The Muslim Brotherhood thus became the only organized viable political force in Egyptian politics. They were thus able to manipulate the immediate post-revolutionary situation to their advantage, winning the legislative and presidential elections, which were boycotted by large swaths of the Egyptian electorate, by very slim margins. Morsi was supposed to put a lid on the Revolution and return Egypt to stability. By adding a veneer of Islamism to the same neo-colonial policies of his predecessor, he was supposed to succeed where others had failed.
But under Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood:
  1. Food prices have doubled
  2. At the behest of the IMF – he committed to ending the fuel subsidies on which millions of the poorest Egyptians depend.
  3. He signed a Free Trade Agreement with the EU that will exacerbate unemployment and rural impoverishment
  4. He has shown his commitment to imperial interests by flooding the Gaza tunnels with sewage and calling for a “no-fly zone” (code for NATO bombardment) in Syria.
  5. He has ensured that Mubarak's strategy of subservience to American, British and Israeli interests is not only maintained, but deepened – at the cost of basic living standards.
The millions-strong mobilizations of the past week have shown that the Egyptian people will no longer back leaders who leave economic policy in the hands of Europe and the international banking elite, security in the hands of a savage and torturing police force, and foreign policy in the hands of the US, Britain and Israel.
The Egyptian people can feed themselves if proper agrarian policies are employed. They can create an economy that begins to meet the needs of the people and they can pursue an independent foreign policy like leftist South American countries. It is nonsense to think that countries like Egypt can only survive by kowtowing to the US, the IMF and the World Bank by privatizing industries, cutting subsidies and social services. Egypt needs to develop "socialism with Egyptian characteristics." Look to China as a model. Egypt already has all the ills usually attributed to China's industrialization and urbanization such as pollution, low wages, corruption, etc. but none of the benefits of high growth rates, eliminating poverty, industrial development etc. Egypt could have been the China of Africa if they had followed Nasser's path.

Maybe Egypt needs a regime like in China. There political expression is curtailed but in exchange the country is politically stable, has seen sustained economic growth for three decades catapulting them from an economic backwater to soon the largest economy in the world, has seen a rapid expansion of individual liberties (people can do pretty much what they want if they don't challenge the authorities) and the peoples livelihood has improved dramatically with 100s of millions being lifted out of poverty. The Pew International Attitude Survey shows that over 80% of Chinese think their country is on the right track. If Egypt had the Chinese brand of benign authoritarian market socialism (aka state capitalism) their economy would be booming, their people would be employed, their youth would have opportunities they now lack and they would have secular rights (the right to dress and behave as you like, the right to enjoy life) lacking under Islamist regimes. What would they lack? The right to protest what they would then have? The Chinese do protest against polluting industrial plants for instance and the authorities usually respond by closing the offending plants. And is the Internet any less censored in the Arab world than in China? Are dissidents any better treated in Egypt than in China? Egypt is not China and it will have its own path to social and economic justice. And of course China has problems dealing with pollution, corruption and the like. But surveys show that those problems are worse in "democratic" countries like India or traditional autocracies like Egypt. 
 
Back to current events. It now looks like the US is running scared, jumping ship once again as soon as the Egyptian people rise up in anger. The US was fine with Mubarak and his autocratic dictatorship as long as it served its corporate interests. Once the Egyptian people had enough of Mubarak's corruption, duplicity and mendacity we cut bait and opted for the oppressors-in-waiting, the long ostracized Muslim Brotherhood. Now they too are exposed wearing the emperor's new clothes. But with Morsi gone who will we back next? Well if the conventional solutions (i.e. continued support of the status quo) are tried and abandoned then why not try something different.? In Egypt the demagogues of the Muslim Brotherhood followed suit trying to force their feet down the people's throats. The US was more than willing to play along. When they failed and were discredited then the liberal opposition will now be given a chance to try on the golden slippers only to find them too tight. It is only when the people take power into their own hands that the cycle will be broken. 
 
In summary, it is interesting that Nasser is never mentioned in commentaries on the situation in Egypt, as if he had never existed. But it was Nasser who set up the governing structure of the Egyptian Republic in which the Army serves as the guarantor of the state. Nasser was a secular pan-Arab nationalist and a socialist very friendly with the USSR. He was a great foe of the Muslim Brotherhood and had them outlawed and their leaders jailed. Under his rule the economy had a strong state sector and the common folk in Egypt were making progress. After his death his successors shifted their allegiance to the US and began implementing a corporate friendly, neoliberal economic agenda which enriched the 1% and their political henchmen and impoverished the Egyptian people. Sadat and Mubarak during their rule betrayed the Nasserite Revolution and the Egyptian people have been seeking a way back to their revolutionary roots ever since. The choice between a neoliberal bourgeois democracy under the thumb of US corporate interests or an autocratic Islamist state led by the Muslim Brotherhood is therefore a Hobson's choice resulting in continued rule by the 1%. Given the circumstances Egypt must follow the non-aligned route that Nasser took. Egypt needs stability so that its economy can grow and the needs of its people are met. With the ouster of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood the Egyptian people have once again stood up and made it clear that they want to return to the proud non-aligned, independent stance of Nasser, founder of the modern Egyptian nation.

The lessons to be learned from the Egyptian Revolution are as follows. The first lesson is that the revolutionary aspirations of people for social and economic justice cannot be thwarted. Their thirst for freedom is unquenchable. Through their day to day struggles and experiences they can see through the devious machinations of their oppressors. With every momentary defeat they rise up in anger with renewed enthusiasm. With every victory they gain a clearer understanding of what needs to be done! The second lesson is that reactionary forces and sectarian movements will try to hijack the revolution if the people are unprepared to fight to the end for their just demands. The third is that the US and its NATO allies will try to take advantage of internal divisions within the revolutionary ranks to reposition themselves in a desperate attempt to redirect the people's revolutionary anger along lines conducive to continued corporate rule. The only way the US corporate state can maintain its influence worldwide is to fish in troubled waters, as in Libya and Syria. But in so doing they will, of necessity, betray the people's trust with false commitments to the rights and freedoms which they are systematically dismantling at home.

The Egyptian Revolution is far from over. The liberal bourgeoisie, headed by ElBaradie, will now be given its chance to discredit itself. The Army will have to either repress the masses of people or respond to their just demands. As each chapter unfolds and the various ruling strata are exposed and discredited the Egyptian people will learn who are their friends and who are their enemies.

No comments: